Mexico Inflation


Mexico: Inflation rises to seven-month high

October 9, 2014

In September, consumer prices rose 0.44% over the previous month, which came in above the 0.36% rise observed in August. The result, which fell short of the 0.47% increase the markets had expected, reflected higher non-core prices, particularly for fresh food prices, which were fuelled by an increase in prices for beef and tomatoes.

Annual inflation inched up from August’s 4.1% to 4.2% in September, which marked the highest level in seven months. As a result, inflation remained above the Central Bank’s plus 1.0 percentage point ceiling of its 3.0% target.

Core consumer prices, which strip out volatile categories such as fresh food and energy prices, rose 0.29% over the previous month (August: +0.21% month-on-month), which marked an eight-month high. Annual core inflation ticked down to 3.3% in September from 3.4% in August.

The Central Bank (Banxico) expects that by the end of 2014, inflation will be below the 4.0% target ceiling. For 2015, Banxico expects inflation to fall to around 3.0%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to end 2014 at 3.8%, which is unchanged over last month’s forecast. For 2015, the panel sees year-end inflation at 3.4%.

Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico Inflation Chart

Mexico Inflation September 2014

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI).

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