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Mexico: Inflation rises slightly in March, consolidates within Central Bank's target

April 9, 2015

In March, consumer prices rose 0.41% over the previous month, which came in above both the 0.19% increase tallied in February and the 0.32% rise the markets had expected. March’s result reflected increases in core consumer prices and non-core consumer prices, particularly prices for fuels and fresh food. Within the fresh food sub-component prices for tomatoes and eggs soared over the previous month. Analysts still agree that the pass-through effects from the depreciation of the Mexican peso are still not visible.

Annual inflation inched up from 3.0% in February to 3.1% in March, consolidating around the Central Bank’s inflation target of 3.0%.

Meanwhile, core consumer prices—which exclude volatile categories such as fresh food and energy—rose 0.26% in February over the previous month, which came in below the 0.34% fall tallied in February. Annual core inflation stabilized at February’s 2.4% in March.

In February, the Central Bank (Banxico) stated that it expects inflation to end 2015 below 3.0%, amid slack in domestic demand. For 2016, the Central Bank sees inflation converging to around 3.0%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to end 2015 at 3.5%, which is unchanged over last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees year-end inflation at 3.3%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico Inflation Chart


Mexico Inflation March 2015 0

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI).


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