Mexico Inflation


Mexico: Inflation remains stable at record low

November 9, 2015

Mexico’s consumer prices rose 0.51% in October over the previous month, which came in above the 0.37% increase observed in September, but fell short of the 0.54% rise the markets had expected. The National Statistics Institute (INEG) reported that the monthly increase resulted from higher prices for food as well as for energy prices. Energy prices jumped in October due to the elimination of the summer energy subsidy. Meanwhile, prices for services, in particular for telecommunications continued to fall.

Despite the monthly increase, inflation stabilized at September’s 2.5% in October and thus remained at the lowest level on record. Since the beginning of the year, inflation has lost half a percentage point, remaining well below the Central Bank’s (Banxico) target of 3.0%.

Meanwhile, the closely watched core consumer prices—which exclude volatile categories such as fresh food and energy and also provide more information regarding knock-on effect from the currency weakening in recent months—rose 0.25% in October over the previous month, which was down from September’s 0.37% increase. Annual core inflation in October inched up from 2.4% in September to 2.5% in October.

The Central Bank (Banxico) expects inflation to end 2015 below 3.0%, amid a slack in domestic demand. For 2016, the Central Bank sees inflation converging to around 3.0%. Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect inflation to end 2015 at 3.0%, which is unchanged over last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees year-end inflation at 3.4%, which is unchanged from last forecast.

Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico Inflation Chart

Mexico Inflation October 2015

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI).

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