Mexico Inflation


Mexico: Inflation drops to a nearly five-decade low

September 9, 2015

Consumer prices in Mexico rose 0.21% in August over the previous month, which was up from the 0.15% increase observed in July, but fell short of the 0.24% increase the market had expected. The National Statistics Institute (INEG) reported that higher core consumer prices, particularly those that reflect the adjustment in school fares, were the main drivers behind the monthly increase. However, a slower increase in prices for fresh food and lower prices for tourism and airfares partially compensated for the increase.

Mexico’s inflation fell from 2.7% in July to 2.6% in August, falling to an unprecedented level last registered in 1968. As a result of the drop, inflation remained well below the Central Bank’s inflation target of 3.0%.

Meanwhile, the closely watched core consumer prices—which exclude volatile categories such as fresh food and energy and also provide more information regarding knock-on effect from the currency weakening in recent months—rose 0.20% in August over the previous month, which was up July’s 0.17% increase. Annual core inflation in August remained stable at 2.3% for the fifth consecutive month.

The Central Bank (Banxico) expects inflation to end 2015 below 3.0%, amid a slack in domestic demand. For 2016, the Central Bank sees inflation converging to around 3.0%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to end 2015 at 3.0%, which is unchanged over last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees year-end inflation at 3.4%.

Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico Inflation Chart

Mexico Inflation August 2015

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI).

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