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Mexico: Inflation continues relentless fall in September

October 8, 2015

Mexico’s consumer prices rose 0.37% over the previous month, which came in above the 0.21% increase observed in August, but fell short of the 0.42% rise the markets had expected. The National Statistics Institute (INEG) reported that the monthly increase resulted from higher non-food items as well as for higher education fees due to the beginning of the academic year.

Inflation continued its relentless decline, reaching yet another all-time low in September. Inflation fell from 2.6% in August to 2.5%. Since the first quarter of the year, inflation has lost half a percentage point, remaining well below the Central Bank’s (Banxico) target of 3.0%.

Moreover, the closely watched core consumer prices—which exclude volatile categories such as fresh food and energy and also provide more information regarding knock-on effect from the currency weakening in recent months—rose 0.37% in September over the previous month, which was up from August’s 0.20% increase. Annual core inflation in September inched up from 2.3% in August to 2.4% in September.

The Central Bank (Banxico) expects inflation to end 2015 below 3.0%, amid a slack in domestic demand. For 2016, the Central Bank sees inflation converging to around 3.0%. Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect inflation to end 2015 at 3.0%, which is unchanged over last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees year-end inflation at 3.4%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico Inflation Chart


Mexico Inflation September 2015

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI).


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