Mexico GDP


Mexico: Revised data show faster economic growth in Q3

November 20, 2015

Mexico’s economy gained momentum in the third quarter, according to more complete data released by the National Statistical Institute (INEGI) on 20 November. GDP expanded 2.6% annually in Q3, which was revised up from the 2.4% increase published in the preliminary estimate released on 30 October. In addition, Q3’s expansion was faster than the revised 2.4% increase observed in Q2 (previously reported: +2.2% year-on-year) and overshot the 2.4% rise the market had expected.

The improvement seen in Q3 reflects an upward revision in services. Services increased 3.3% year-on-year in Q3, which was revised up from the 2.9% rise published in the preliminary estimate. Growth in services was faster than the 3.1% expansion observed in Q2. Meanwhile, the industrial sector expanded 1.2% in Q3, which mirrored the flash estimate and marked a notable improvement compared to the 0.6% expansion tallied in Q2. Conversely, growth in agriculture in Q3 was revised down from the 4.6% reported in the preliminary estimate to 4.1%. The reading, nonetheless, marked an acceleration compared to the 2.6% rise registered in Q2.

Looking at seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter data, Mexico’s GDP expanded 0.8% in Q3 (previously reported: +0.6% quarter-on-quarter), which represented a faster increase compared to the 0.6% expansion tallied in Q2.

In November, the Central Bank (Banxico) revised Mexico’s growth forecasts and now expects the economy to grow between 1.9% and 2.4% this year (previous estimate: between 1.7% and 2.5%). For 2016, the Bank left its projections unchanged and sees the economy growing between 2.5% and 3.5%. The government expects the economy to grow between 2.0% and 2.8% in 2015. For 2016, the government predicts economic growth of between 2.6% and 3.6%. According to the latest survey of analysts for the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast, panelists see the economy increasing 2.3% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects growth to pick up to 2.9%, which is also unchanged from last month’s Consensus.

Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico GDP Chart

Mexico GDP Q3 2015 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

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