Mexico GDP Q2 2016


Mexico: Q2 GDP growth revised up, data shows slight acceleration

August 22, 2016

Comprehensive data show that Mexico’s GDP growth picked up some momentum in the second quarter. According to a second release made by the National Statistical Institute (INEGI), GDP increased 2.5% year-on-year in Q2, which came in slightly above the 2.4% increase published in a preliminary estimate released by INEGI on 29 July. The revised data show that Q2’s result came in above the downwardly-revised 2.4% increase in the first quarter (previously reported: +2.6% year-on-year).

Agriculture and industry accelerated over the previous quarter, according to the revised data. Activity in Mexico’s primary sector increased 3.8% annually in Q2, which was up from a 3.0% increase in Q1. Meanwhile, growth in the industrial sector came in at a solid 1.0% in Q2, up from the 0.3% increase observed in Q1. Services decelerated further in the second quarter, yet the sector continued to show robust growth: it eased from a 3.5% increase in Q1 to a strong 3.2% expansion in Q2.

That said, sequential data adjusted for seasonal factors does not corroborate the improvement suggested by the annual data. GDP contracted a revised 0.2% over the previous quarter in Q2 (previously reported: -0.3% quarter-on-quarter), which contrasted the revised 0.5% expansion recorded in Q1 (previously reported: +0.8% qoq). Analysts suggest that the drop in the second quarter was largely attributable to a faulty seasonal adjustment related to the Easter holiday, which significantly depressed economic activity in April.

The Central Bank (Banxico) expects the economy to grow between 2.0% and 3.0% in 2016. For 2017, the Bank expects GDP to grow between 2.5% and 3.3%. According to the latest survey of analysts for the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast, panelists see the economy increasing 2.3% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel expects growth to pick up to 2.6%.

Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico GDP Chart

Mexico GDP Q2 2016 2

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

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