Mexico GDP


Mexico: Growth stable in Q4

February 18, 2013

In the fourth quarter, GDP increased 3.2% over the same period the year before. The figure mirrored the revised 3.2% rise seen in Q3 2012 (previously reported: +3.3% year-on-year) but fell short of market expectations, which had the economy expanding 3.4%. As a result, in the full year 2012, GDP expanded 3.9%, which came in a notch below market expectations but matched the previous year's growth rate.

The stable reading was the result of stronger growth in the agricultural and services sectors, which was offset by a slowdown in industrial output. In particular, the agricultural sector showed a significant improvement, rising from a 1.6% increase in Q3 to a robust 7.2% expansion in Q4. Growth in the services sector inched up from 3.3% in Q3 to 3.4% in Q4, whereas the industrial sector moderated the pace and grew only 1.8% in Q4, which was half the 3.6% expansion seen in the previous three-month period.

That said, a quarter-on-quarter comparison suggests an improvement in economic activity, as GDP expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in the fourth quarter, which doubled the 0.4% rise recorded in the previous quarter.

In its latest inflation report from February, the Central Bank projects the economy to grow between 3.0% and 4.0% this year and between 3.2% and 4.2% in 2014.


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Mexico GDP Chart

Mexico GDP Q4 2012

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

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