Mexico GDP Q4 2015


Mexico: GDP growth moderates in final quarter of 2015

January 29, 2016

Mexico’s GDP lost momentum in the fourth quarter, according to a preliminary estimate released by the National Statistics Institute (INEGI) on 29 January. INEGI recently introduced a preliminary estimation of quarterly GDP, in line with numerous other major OECD countries that release more timely preliminary estimates. Revised data will continue to be published within the same time frames as before, but will be subject to revisions compared to the preliminary results.

The preliminary estimate showed that the economy increased 2.5% in Q4 over the same period of the previous year, which represented a mild deceleration over the 2.6% expansion observed in Q3. A seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter comparison showed that GDP grew 0.6% in Q4, which was down from 0.8% rise tallied in Q3.

Looking at the sectors of the economy, a deceleration in agriculture and industry were the main drivers behind Q4’s weaker increase. Agriculture grew 3.0% year-on-year in Q4 (Q2: +4.1% yoy) and the industrial sector expanded 0.6% (Q3: +1.2% yoy). Meanwhile, services continued to show robust growth in Q4: the sector accelerated from a 3.3% increase in Q3 to a 3.5% expansion in Q4.

The preliminary estimate also showed that in 2015 as a whole, the Mexican economy grew 2.5%. The result was an improvement over the 2.3% expansion registered in 2014.

The government expects the economy to grow between 2.6% and 3.6% in 2016. Mexico’s Central Bank sees the economy growing between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2016 and between 3.0% and 4.0% in 2017. According to the latest survey of analysts for the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast, panelists see the economy increasing 2.8% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel expects growth to pick up to 3.2%.

Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico GDP Chart

Mexico GDP Q4 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI)

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