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Mexico: First preliminary estimate shows mild economic acceleration

October 30, 2015

Mexico’s GDP gained momentum in the third quarter, according to a preliminary estimate released by the National Statistics Institute (INEGI) on 30 October. INEGI introduced its first preliminary estimation of quarterly GDP, in line with numerous other major OECD countries that release more timely preliminary estimates. Revised data will continue to be published within the same time frames as before, but will be subject to revisions compared to the preliminary results.

The preliminary estimate showed that the economy increased 2.4% annually in Q3, which represented a mild acceleration over the 2.2% expansion observed in Q2. A seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter comparison showed that GDP grew 0.6% in Q3, which was up from 0.5% rise tallied in Q2.

Looking at the sectors of the economy, agriculture showed a notable 4.6% year-on-year increase in Q3 (Q2: +2.7% yoy), which was the best performing sector. Although the oil and gas sector continue to be a drag on industry, it grew 1.2% annually in Q3, which came in above the previous quarter’s 0.5% expansion. Meanwhile, services moderated from a 3.1% increase in Q2 to a 2.9% expansion in Q3.

In November, the Central Bank (Banxico) revised Mexico’s growth forecasts and now expects the economy to grow between 1.9% and 2.4% this year (previous estimate: between 1.7% and 2.5%). For 2016, the Bank left its projections unchanged and sees the economy growing between 2.5% and 3.5%.

According to the latest survey of analysts for the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast, panelists see the economy increasing 2.3% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects growth to pick up to 2.9%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico GDP Chart


Mexico GDP Q3 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.


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