Mexico: Economic growth beats market expectations
May 19, 2011
In the first quarter, GDP increased 4.6% over the same period last year. The print was above the revised fourth quarter's 4.4% expansion (previously reported: +4.6% year-on-year) but slightly below last month's LatinFocus Consensus Forecast projection of a 4.8% increase. The stronger reading was mainly driven by positive developments in the industrial and services sectors, which were partly offset by a significant slowdown in agriculture. While growth in the industrial sector accelerated to 5.2% over the same quarter last year (Q4 2010: +4.8% yoy) and services improved to a 4.4% expansion (Q4 2010: +4.1% yoy), agriculture increased just 1.2%, well below the 6.2% expansion recorded in the previous quarter. A quarter-on-quarter comparison suggests a weak start to the year, with GDP growing a seasonally adjusted 0.52% over the previous quarter, which came in below the previous quarter's 1.13% expansion. The Central Bank anticipates the economy to grow between 4.0% and 5.0% this year and between 3.8% and 4.8% in 2012.