Mexico Economic Activity

Mexico

Mexico: Economic activity slows in January

March 25, 2015

The monthly economic activity indicator (IGAE) elaborated by INEGI rose 2.0% in January over the same month last year. The reading represented a deceleration over the 3.2% increase observed in December but slightly overshot the 1.8% increase the markets had expected. Following a stabilization in December, the trend in economic activity improved slightly in January. Annual average growth in economic activity inched up from 2.1% in December to 2.2%.

The slowdown observed in January was solely the result of a disappointing growth in the industrial sector. Industry increased a mere 0.3% year-on-year in January, which came in well below the 3.0% expansion registered in December. In fact, the slowdown exceeded the 2.1% rise the markets had expected. In addition, growth in services moderated over the previous month, while agriculture soared 14.1% in January, well above the 3.4% increase tallied in December.

Sequential data, however, do not corroborate the slowdown suggested by the annual data. Economic activity increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.22% over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.36% contraction observed in December.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy expanding 3.0% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects growth to pick up to 3.5%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico Economic Activity Chart


Mexico Economic Activity January 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI)


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