Mexico Economic Activity October 2015

Mexico

Mexico: Economic activity shows signs of moderation at the beginning of Q4 2015

December 23, 2015

Economic activity in Mexico decelerated in October, which followed a strong acceleration in September. According to the monthly economic activity indicator (EGAE) elaborated by the National Statistics Institute (INEGI), economic activity increased 2.3% annually in October, which came in below the 3.3% expansion registered in September. The result, which overshot the 2.1% rise the markets had expected, reflected notable slowdowns in the agricultural and industrial sectors. Growth in services only moderated in October.

The trend continued to suggest that growth in economic activity remains stable. Annual average growth in economic activity remained steady in October at September’s 2.5%.

A month-on-month comparison corroborates the slowdown suggested by the annual data. Economic activity increased 0.2% in October over the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms. The print was down from a 0.3% rise tallied September.

The government expects the economy to grow between 2.6% and 3.6% in 2016. Mexico’s Central Bank expects the economy to have expanded between 1.7% and 2.5% this year. For 2016, the Bank sees the economy growing between 2.5% and 3.5%. According to the latest survey of analysts for the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast, panelists see the economy increasing 2.8% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel expects growth to pick up to 3.2%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico Economic Activity October 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI)


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