Mexico Economic Activity January 2016

Mexico

Mexico: Economic activity moderates the pace of expansion

March 29, 2016

Mexico’s economic activity, measured by the monthly economic activity indicator (EGAE) elaborated by the National Statistics Institute (INEGI), increased 2.3% year-on-year in January. January’s reading marked a deceleration compared to the 2.6% expansion registered in December and fell short of the 2.5% increase the markets had expected. According to INEGI, the monthly deceleration was mainly the result of slower growth in services. That said, the agricultural and industrial sectors picked up steam and expanded notably in January.

On a sequential basis, economic activity expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% over the previous month in January, which came in well above the 0.1% rise seen in December. The increase in January was the fastest since August 2015.

The trend continued to suggest that growth in economic activity remains stable, albeit solid. Annual average growth in economic activity remained steady in January at December’s 2.5%.

The Central Bank (Banxico) cut its growth forecast for 2016 and now sees the economy growing between 2.0% and 3.0% (previous estimate: 2.5% and 3.5%). For 2017, the Bank also revised Mexico’s growth prospects and now expects GDP to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% (previous estimate: 3.0% and 4.0%). According to the latest survey of analysts for the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast, panelists see the economy increasing 2.5% in 2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel expects growth to pick up to 2.9%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico Economic Activity January 2016

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI)


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