Mexico Economic Activity


Mexico: Economic activity moderates in April; sequential data suggest strong growth

June 24, 2014

Economic activity expanded 0.5% over the same month last year in April, according to INEGI’s monthly economic activity indicator (IGAE). The reading came in below the 3.2% expansion tallied in March and was on par with market expectations. This is the weakest expansion since November 2013. However, it is important to note that the year-on-year growth rate in April was affected by the dates of this year’s Easter holiday. Adjusting for working-day effects shows economic growth of 3.0% in April.

April’s result reflected lower readings in agriculture (March: +7.1% year-on-year; April: +1.3% yoy) as well as in services (March: +2.8% year-on-year; April: +1.1% yoy). Industry contracted 0.6% annually in April, which contrasted the 3.8% expansion tallied in March.

A month-on-month comparison confirms the seasonal effects observed in April’s annual data. Economic activity expanded a strong 1.2% in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the 0.6% contraction observed in March.

The trend fell slightly; annual average growth in economic activity inched down from 1.4% in March to 1.1% in April.

The government expects the economy to grow 2.7% in 2014 while the Central Bank (Banxico) sees the economy growing between 2.3% and 3.3%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists’ projection is in line with the Bank’s assessment. They see the economy expanding 3.1% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2015, the panel expects growth to pick up to 3.9%.

Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico Economic Activity Chart

Mexico Economic Activity April 2014

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI)

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