Mexico Consumer Confidence

Mexico

Mexico: Consumer confidence falls for second consecutive month

September 4, 2015

Consumer confidence slipped again in August and hit a six-month low. The unadjusted index of consumer confidence elaborated by INEGI fell from 92.2 in July to 90.4 in August, which marked the lowest level since February. The reading also undershot the 92.2 the markets had expected. The consumer confidence index fell a seasonally-adjusted 1.2% over the previous month, which followed the 2.0% drop registered in July.

Looking at the details, the subcomponents of households’ assessment of their current economic situation and economic prospects declined to a three-month low and a 10-month low, respectively. However, regarding the current and future national economic situation, consumers were gloomier. The sub-indicator of consumers’ assessment regarding the current national economic situation declined to the lowest level since January 2014. The sub-indicator for households’ opinion about the country’s economic prospects declined to a level last observed in October 2009. Analysts agree that, despite strong growth in private consumption due to low unemployment and inflation, the low level of confidence among Mexican consumers is mainly the result of the recent external shocks translated into a weaker peso and prospects of slower economic growth in the context of government spending cuts.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to grow 3.4% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projections. For 2016, the panel sees private consumption expanding 3.6%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico Consumer Confidence August 2015

Note: Consumer Confidence Index (ICC, Indicador de Confianza del Consumidor). January 2003=100.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI).


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