Lithuania: GDP growth accelerates moderately in Q2
August 29, 2013
In the second quarter, GDP grew 3.8% over the same period last year, according to revised data published on 29 August. The result was above the 3.5% expansion recorded in the fourth quarter and just above the 3.7% increase reported in the 30 July flash estimate.
The acceleration in Q2 was driven predominantly by strong growth in fixed investment, which expanded 12.1% (Q1: +6.4%). Private consumption also contributed to the boost, growing 4.9% over the same period last year (Q1: +3.0% year-on-year). Government consumption slowed in Q2, rising 1.2% compared the 1.7% increase registered in the previous quarter.
On the external side, exports of goods and services slowed from a 17.2% expansion in the first quarter to a 12.9% rise in the second. Simultaneously, imports rose 13.1% (Q1: +9.6% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth fell sharply from 6.0 percentage points in the first quarter to 0.5 percentage points in the second.
A quarter-on-quarter analysis, however, does not corroborate the acceleration suggested by annual figures; GDP expanded a seasonally and working-day adjusted 0.6% over the previous quarter, which was down from the 1.3% increase registered in the first quarter.
The Central Bank expects GDP to grow 3.1% in 2013 and 3.8% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists see the economy growing 3.1% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate. In 2014, the panel expects GDP to expand 3.4%.
Author: Carl Kelly, Economist