Lithuania GDP


Lithuania: Economic growth slows in Q4 to over two-year low

February 27, 2015

In Q4 2014, GDP grew 2.4% over the same period last year, according to revised data published on 27 February. The result met the flash estimate, but was down from the 2.7% expansion recorded in the third quarter and marked the slowest growth since Q2 2012. The weaker performance of the external sector was mainly behind the slowdown.

On the domestic side, private consumption growth picked up from 4.0% in Q3 to 6.0% in Q4. Government consumption increased 1.4% over the same period of the previous year (Q3: +1.1% year-on-year). Fixed investment edged down to a 4.4% increase in Q4 (Q3: +4.8% yoy).

On the external side, exports of goods and services slowed from a 6.2% expansion in the third quarter to a 4.1% increase in the fourth. Simultaneously, imports’ growth accelerated from Q3’s 4.6% increase to a 9.1% expansion. As exports slowed down while imports picked up, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth deteriorated from plus 1.3 percentage points in the third quarter to minus 3.9 percentage points in the fourth.

A quarter-on-quarter analysis does not corroborate the deceleration suggested by annual figures; GDP expanded a seasonally- and working-day adjusted 0.6% in Q4 over the previous quarter, which was a tad above 0.5% increase registered in the third quarter.

The Central Bank expects GDP to grow 3.1% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 2.8% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel expects GDP to expand 3.4%.

Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Lithuania GDP Chart

Lithuania GDP Q4 2014 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Statistics Lithuania and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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