Lithuania GDP

Lithuania

Lithuania: Economic growth slows in Q1

May 29, 2015

According to the more detailed data released by the National Statistics Office on 29 May, GDP rose 1.5% in annual terms in Q1. The reading, which was the lowest since Q3 2010, represented a notable deceleration compared to the 2.5% increase registered in Q4 2014. However, it marked an improvement over the 1.2% increase reported in the preliminary estimate.

On the domestic side of the economy, growth in private consumption fell from 6.2% in Q4 to 3.7% in Q1. In addition, government consumption grew 2.0% in the first quarter, which was down from the 2.5% rise recorded in the previous quarter. Contrary, fixed investment grew 7.8% in Q1 (Q4: +4.4% year-on-year).

In the first quarter, exports decelerated notably as they grew 2.8% over the same quarter of the previous year, which was down from the fourth quarter’s 4.8% increase. In addition, growth in imports decelerated from 9.5% in Q4 to 7.8% in Q1. As a result, the net contribution of the external sector to growth fell from minus 3.7 percentage points in the fourth quarter to minus 3.9 percentage points in the first quarter, which represented the lowest reading since Q4 2010.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP shrank a seasonally- and working-day adjusted 0.6% in Q1, contrasting the 0.7% expansion observed in Q4 and marking the largest contraction since Q4 2009.

The Central Bank expects GDP to grow 2.7% in 2015 and 3.5% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 2.7% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel expects GDP to expand 3.4%.


Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Lithuania GDP Q1 2015 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Statistics Lithuania and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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