Latvia: Industrial output contracts for second consecutive month
April 4, 2014
In February, industrial production decreased 1.7% over the same month last year, which followed the revised 5.5% contraction registered in January (previously reported: -11.0 year-on-year). February's result reflected a contraction in manufacturing output as well as in electricity and gas supply. Conversely, mining and quarrying expanded in February. In addition, the statistical office stated that starting 2014, a new weighting structure in the industrial production index will be applied. The revision in January reflected the new structure.
A month-on-month comparison confirms the improvement suggested by the annual data. Industrial production increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.9% in February, which contrasted the revised 3.1% contraction registered in January (previously reported: -10.7% mom). Annual average growth in industrial production inched up form minus 1.0% in January to minus 0.9% in February.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to rebound in 2014 and expand 3.2%, which would mark a substantial improvement over the 0.9% contraction tallied in 2013. For 2015, the panel expects growth in industrial output to accelerate to 4.5%.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist