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Latvia: GDP growth improves in Q3

November 28, 2014

In the third quarter, GDP growth rose 2.4% over the same period last year, according to revised data released by the Central Statistical Bureau (Statics Latvia) on 28 November. The reading marked a slight improvement over the 2.3% increase observed in Q2 and was revised up from the 30 October preliminary estimate of GDP growth slowing to 2.1%.

Q3’s final result showed that the external sector contributed positively to overall growth. Exports of goods and services rose 0.3% year-on-year in Q3, which came in below the 1.7% expansion observed in Q2. However, imports contracted 1.1% in Q3, which marked a deterioration over the 2.3% expansion registered in Q2. Consequently, the net contribution from net exports swung from a 0.4 percentage-point detraction in Q2 to a 0.9 percentage-point contribution in Q3.

On the domestic front, growth in private and government consumption each decelerated to 2.1% in Q3, down from 2.3% and 3.9%, respectively in Q2. Gross fixed investment deteriorated and contracted 1.9% in Q3, which contrasted the 1.8% expansion observed in Q2.

A quarter-on-quarter comparison showed that GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% in Q3, which came in below the 0.8% expansion tallied in Q2.

The Central Bank expects the economy to expand 3.3% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 3.0% in 2014, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2015, panelists also expect the economy to expand 3.1%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Latvia GDP Q3 2014 0

Note: Year-on year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Statistics Bureau and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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