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Latvia: Economic growth slows in the fourth quarter to lowest in nearly four years

January 30, 2015

In the fourth quarter of 2014, GDP increased 1.9% over the same period of the previous year, according to a preliminary estimate released by Statistics Latvia on 30 January, Q4’s result came in below the 2.4% rise tallied in the previous quarter and marked the slowest pace of expansion since Q1 2011. The statistical office did not provide further details regarding the performance of the economy’s sectors. Nonetheless, the deceleration in economic activity is likely the result of a continued deterioration in the industrial sector.

A quarter-on-quarter comparison corroborates the deceleration suggested by the annual data. GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% in Q4over the previous quarter, which was just down the 0.5% rise observed in Q3. According to the statistical institute, more complete data on national accounts will be released on 27 February.

Based on quarterly data, the economy increased 2.4% in the full year 2014. The reading was nearly half the growth rate registered in 2013.

The Central Bank expects the economy to expand 2.7% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 2.7% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, panelists also expect the economy to expand 3.4%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Latvia GDP Q4 2014

Note: Year-on year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Statistics Bureau and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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