Kenya GDP

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Kenya: GDP growth slows in Q4 and in full year 2014

April 29, 2015

In the fourth quarter of 2014, GDP increased 5.1% over the same period of the previous year, which marked a deceleration over the 5.4% growth observed in Q3 and the smallest expansion since Q1 2014. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 1.2% in Q4 (Q3: -3.2% quarter-on-quarter). In the full year 2014, GDP expanded 5.3%, coming in below 2013’s 5.7% rise.

Q4’s deceleration was mainly driven by a slowdown in agriculture and a contraction in manufacturing. Agriculture moderated from the 6.8% growth observed in Q3 to a milder 3.8% expansion in Q4. Manufacturing shrank 2.7% in Q4, contrasting Q3’s 1.5% rise. Meanwhile, electricity and water supply was broadly unchanged, growing 7.3% year-on-year (Q3: +7.2% yoy). Conversely, mining and quarrying picked up notably from Q3’s modest 1.5% expansion to a strong 22.0% rise in the fourth quarter. Performance among the service sector was mixed in Q4, however the majority of sub-categories improved compared to Q3, including the accommodation and restaurant as well as the financial and insurance sub-components.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 6.0% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists project an expansion of 6.3%.


Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Kenya GDP Q414

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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