Kazakhstan Inflation January 2017

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan: Inflation falls further in January

February 3, 2017

Consumer prices in Kazakhstan rose 0.8% from the previous month in January, coming in mildly below the 0.9% increase observed in December. January’s result stemmed from a slower increase in prices for food, clothing and transport.

Inflation fell from 8.5% in December to 7.9% in January, the lowest rate since September 2015. Inflation began to fall abruptly from October 2016 due to a base effect and is expected to continue falling in the coming months, although at a slower pace, as the base effect fades. Due to the rapid fall in inflation and inflation expectations, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut interest rates by a cumulative 500 basis points last year. At the first meeting of this year, the Bank decided to maintain interest rates.

As the economy adapts to new economic conditions, namely a more stable exchange rate and rising oil prices, the trend confirms that inflation is decelerating. Annual average inflation fell from 14.7% in December to 14.1% in January.

After falling to just above the upper ceiling of its target range of between 6.0% and 8.0% in 2016, the National Bank of Kazakhstan expects inflation to fall to a range of between 7.3% and 7.7% this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to end 2017 at 6.8%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. By the end of 2018, our panel expects inflation to fall to 5.8%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Kazakhstan Inflation January 2016 0

Note: Month-on-month changes and annual variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Republic of Kazakhstan Agency of Statistics.


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