Kazakhstan Industry April 2016

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan: Industrial production moves deeper into negative territory in April

May 16, 2016

The deterioration in industrial production persisted in April, following incipient signs of recovery at the beginning of the year. In April, industrial production contracted 3.1% over the same month last year, which came in below the 1.8% decrease observed in March. Looking at the details, April’s plunge reflected a sharp deterioration in mining and quarrying (April: -6.2% year-on-year, March: -2.6% yoy), while manufacturing output rebounded and expanded 0.8% in April (March: -0.7% yoy). Analysts think that the weaker activity observed in mining likely reflected soft demand from China, while the positive result in manufacturing is more encouraging, which suggests that industrial production could return to positive territory in the coming months.

As a result of April’s contraction, the inertia of the deterioration registered in the past months continued. The trend is still pointing downward, with the annual average variation in industrial production falling from minus 1.9% in March to minus 2.1% in April. The trend continues to point to a deteriorating state in industrial production that Kazakhstan has not experienced in many decades.

Following a sharp deterioration in 2015, industrial production is expected to remain depressed this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to contract 1.1% in 2016, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2017, the panel sees industrial production recovering and expanding 2.0%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Kazakhstan Industry April 2016

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.
Source: Republic of Kazakhstan Agency of Statistics.


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