Kazakhstan Industry June 2016

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan: Deterioration in industrial production stops suddenly in June

July 15, 2016

Industrial production in Kazakhstan has been to deteriorating substantially since July 2015, registering improvements in only a few months. The latest data show that industrial output increased a mild 0.1% year-on-year in June, which came in above the 5.3% plunge registered in May. Although June’s result was encouraging, the reading was likely another one-off improvement and not a green shoot suggesting that a recovery has started.

June’s expansion was due solely to a strong rebound in mining and quarrying, which swung from a 10.8% plunge in May to a 0.2% increase in June. The soft growth rate in industrial output was also supported by another month of increase in manufacturing production. Meanwhile, electricity generation and water management remained in the doldrums in June.

Despite June’s improvement, the inertia of the deterioration registered in the past months continued. The downward trend continues, with the annual average variation in industrial production falling from minus 2.7% in May to minus 2.8% in June.

Industrial production deteriorated sharply in 2015 and is expected to remain depressed this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to contract 1.0% in 2016, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2017, the panel sees industrial production recovering and expanding 1.8%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Kazakhstan Industry June 2016 0

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.
Source: Republic of Kazakhstan Agency of Statistics.


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