Kazakhstan Industry

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan: Contraction in industrial production softens for third month

December 16, 2015

Kazakhstan’s industrial production contracted for a fifth consecutive month in November, but the pace of contraction softened for a third time. Industrial production decreased 3.3% annually in November, which came in marginally above the 3.9% decrease observed in October. Industrial production plummeted in August, which had marked the steepest drop since March 2009.

The softer contraction in November resulted from a milder drop in mining and quarrying—which continues to reflect less oil production as well as in manufacturing production. On a negative note, electricity distribution swung from a 0.2% increase in October to a 3.9% contraction in November.

With November’s decrease, the output trend continued to suggest that a recovery in industrial production is not foreseeable in the coming months. The annual average variation in industrial production fell from minus 0.6% in October to minus 1.2% in November, the weakest level since May 2009.

Industrial production will experience a contraction in 2015 for the first time since 1998 and following the deterioration, industrial production is expected to recover, although slowly. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to expand 0.8% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2017, the panel sees industrial production gaining traction and expanding 3.1%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Kazakhstan Industry November 2015

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.
Source: Republic of Kazakhstan Agency of Statistics.


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