Kazakhstan: Economy logs solid performance in the first nine months of the year
December 29, 2017
GDP grew 4.2% in the January–September period compared to the same period of the previous year, according to a breakdown of GDP by expenditure released by Kazakhstan’s Statistical Institute on 29 December. The print came in slightly below the 4.3% year-on-year growth recorded in the January–June period, and below the first estimate of growth (+4.3%) for the January–September period calculated on a production basis. A strong performance in exports and resilient domestic demand sustained growth at a healthy level in the first nine months of the year.
Domestic demand expanded 1.6% in January–September over the same period of the previous year, matching the increase in the January–June period. Private consumption growth moderated to 1.4% in the nine-month period (January–June: +1.9% year-on-year), while growth in government consumption accelerated in the nine-month period to 1.8% after coming in flat in the January–June period. Fixed investment growth also picked up, rising 3.9% in January–September, up from 3.5% in January–June, as oil production and manufacturing continued to expand.
On the external front, exports improved somewhat, increasing 0.8% (January–June: +0.3% yoy), while imports contracted at a slower pace (January–September: -6.5% yoy; January–June: -6.9% yoy). Thus, the external sector’s net contribution was positive. Robust oil production at the Kashagan oil field, encouraged by higher oil prices, is expected to keep the economy on a solid footing in 2018, aiding further infrastructure development programs.
Kazakhstan GDP Forecast
Kazakhstan’s 2018 state budget, passed in parliament on 22 November, projects GDP rising 3.1% in 2018. Analysts surveyed this month by FocusEconomics expect the economy to increase 3.2% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. The panel sees growth speeding up to 3.4% in 2019.
Author: Nihad Ahmed, Economist