Japan: Inflation declines slightly in September
October 25, 2013
In September, the core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 0.1% over the previous month and was below the 0.3% rise recorded in August. Higher prices for clothing and footwear, as well as for fuel, electricity and water charges, were partially offset by lower prices for culture and recreation, as well as for transportation and communication.
Core inflation moderated from 0.8% in August - which had marked the highest level since November 2008 - to 0.7% in September. August's reading was in line with market expectations. Overall inflation in September rose to 1.0%, up from 0.9% in August.
The Tokyo core consumer price index - available one month in advance of the national figures and thus a leading indicator for countrywide inflation - rose 0.3% in October over the same month last year (September: +0.2% year-on-year). This result matched market expectations.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects that core inflation will be between 0.5% and 0.8% in the fiscal year ending March 2014. In the following fiscal year, the BoJ sees inflation - excluding the effects of the consumption tax hikes - accelerating to between 0.7% and 1.6%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation of 0.1% in the calendar year 2013, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate. In 2014, the panel sees inflation at 1.9%, which is also up 0.1 percentage points over the previous month's forecast.