Japan Inflation

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Japan: Core prices in September fall for second consecutive month

October 30, 2015

In September, the core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, was unchanged compared to the previous month, which was in line with the result tallied in August. The print mainly reflected that a sizeable increase in prices for clothes and footwear was offset by lower costs for fuel, lights and water charges.

Core prices fell 0.1% annually in September, which was unchanged from the reading tallied in August. The print was broadly in line with the 0.2% drop that market analysts had expected. Overall inflation in September fell from 0.2% in August to a flat reading, hitting a 28-month low.

Core prices for Tokyo—available one month in advance of the national figures and thus a leading indicator for countrywide inflation—fell 0.2% over the same month last year in October (September: -0.2% year-on-year), which was in line with the result that market analysts’ had expected.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects that core inflation will be between 0.0% and 0.4% in the fiscal year ending March 2016. In the following fiscal year, the BoJ sees inflation rising to somewhere between 0.8% and 1.5%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation of 0.8% in the calendar year 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel sees inflation at 1.0%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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Japan Inflation September 2015

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month var. of consumer price index in %.
Source: Statistics Bureau (SB) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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