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Japan: Core prices in October decline for third consecutive month

November 27, 2015

In October, the core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 0.1% compared to the previous month, which was slightly above the flat reading tallied in September. The print mainly reflected a sizeable increase in prices for clothes and footwear as well as for furniture and household utensils.

Core prices fell 0.1% annually in October, which was unchanged from the reading tallied in August and September. The print was in line with the result predicted by market analysts. Overall inflation in October rose from 0.0% in September to 0.3%, hitting a four-month high.

Core prices for Tokyo—available one month in advance of the national figures and thus a leading indicator for countrywide inflation—were flat in November over the same month last year (October: -0.2% year-on-year), which contrasted the 0.1% fall that market analysts’ had expected.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects that core inflation will be between 0.0% and 0.4% in the fiscal year ending March 2016. In the following fiscal year, the BoJ sees inflation rising to somewhere between 0.8% and 1.5%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation of 0.7% in the calendar year 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel also sees inflation at 0.7%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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Japan Inflation October 2015

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month var. of consumer price index in %.
Source: Statistics Bureau (SB) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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