Japan Inflation

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Japan: Core inflation eases further in May

June 26, 2015

In May, the core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 0.2% over the previous month. The print was slightly below the 0.3% increase tallied in April and mainly reflected a sizeable increase in prices for culture and recreation as well as for transport and communication.

Annual core inflation inched down from April’s 0.3% to 0.1% in May. The print slightly overshot the flat reading that market analysts had expected and represented the lowest level since May 2013. Overall inflation fell from 0.6% in April to 0.5% in May.

Core inflation for Tokyo—available one month in advance of the national figures and thus a leading indicator for countrywide inflation—fell from 0.2% in May to 0.1% in June, which was slightly below the 0.2% that market analysts’ had expected.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects that core inflation will be between 0.2% and 1.2% in the fiscal year ending March 2016. In the following fiscal year, the BoJ sees inflation rising to somewhere between 1.2% and 2.2%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation of 0.7% in the calendar year 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel sees inflation at 1.0%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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Japan Inflation May 2015

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month var. of consumer price index in %.
Source: Statistics Bureau (SB) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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