Japan Industry

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Japan: Industrial production in October expands at fastest pace in nine months

November 30, 2015

In October, industrial production expanded 1.4% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which followed the 1.1% increase recorded in September (previously reported: +1.0% month-on-month). October’s print was better than the 1.1% increase that market analysts had expected and represented a nine-month high.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the categories that made the greatest contributions to the monthly increase were general-purpose, production and business oriented machinery, transport equipment as well as electronic parts and devices. As a result, the government maintained its basic assessment of industrial production, stating that output was "moving sideways."

On an annual basis, industrial output fell 1.4% in October, which was below the 0.8% drop tallied in the previous month. Annual average growth in industrial production inched down from minus 1.1% in September to minus 1.2% in October.

The Survey of Production Forecast showed that manufacturers are becoming more optimistic. They now expect industrial output to have recorded a month-on-month 0.2% expansion in November, which contrasted the 0.3% decrease that was forecast in the previous month’s survey. Manufacturers expect a 0.9% drop in December.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production falling 0.3% in 2015, which is down 0.4 percentage points over the previous month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects industrial production to rise 1.8%, which is down 0.3 percentage points over the previous month’s estimate.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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Japan Industry October 2015

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and year-on-year growth rate in %.
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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