Japan Industry September 2016


Japan: Industrial production flattens in September

October 31, 2016

In September, industrial production in Japan was flat over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which followed August’s 1.4% increase (previously reported: +1.5% month-on-month). September’s print undershot the 0.9% expansion that market analysts had expected.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the monthly print mainly reflected that gains in general-purpose, production and business-oriented machinery, transport equipment and chemicals were offset by a deterioration in information and communication electronics equipment, electronic parts and devices and fabricated metals. As a result of September’s reading, the government maintained its basic assessment of industrial production, stating that output was, "showing signs of increasing at a moderate pace."

On an annual basis, industrial output expanded 0.9% in September, following the previous month’s 4.5% increase. Annual average growth in industrial production rose from minus 1.2% in August to minus 1.0% in September.

The Survey of Production Forecast showed that manufacturers are becoming slightly less optimistic. They now expect industrial output to have recorded a month-on-month 1.1% increase in October, which was slightly below the 1.2% expansion that was forecast in the previous month’s survey. Manufacturers expect a 2.1% expansion in November.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production falling 0.9% in 2016, which is up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s projection. For 2017, the panel expects industrial production to rise 1.6%, which is unchanged from the previous month’s estimate.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Japan Industry Chart

Japan Industry September 2016

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and year-on-year growth rate in %.
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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