Japan GDP Q4 2015


Japan: Most recent data corroborate Q4's GDP slump

March 8, 2016

Revised data confirmed that Japan is far from achieving a suitable growth path as household spending is failing to support the economy and exports remain depressed amid subdued global demand, mainly from China. Against this backdrop, the possibility of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) triggering its bazooka again in the coming months and further fiscal stimulus from the government have to be priced in. GDP fell 1.1% in Q4 over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), according to new data released on 8 March. The reading was a notch above the 1.4% drop reported in the first release and represented a reverse from the 1.4% expansion tallied in Q3. On an annual basis, economic activity rose 0.7% in Q4. While the print was up from the 0.5% increase tallied in the first estimate, it marked a deceleration over Q3’s 1.7% expansion.

The upwardly revised figure showed that investment in private non-residential investment fared better than in the previous estimate report (first estimate: +5.7% quarter-on-quarter SAAR; second estimate: +6.3% qoq SAAR), while the contribution to growth from the external sector was broadly stable. The drop in private consumption was nearly unchanged compared to the initial report (first estimate: -3.3% qoq SAAR; second estimate: -3.4% qoq SAAR), while government spending accelerated slightly to 2.4% (first estimate: +2.1% qoq SAAR).

The BoJ expects the economy to expand between 1.0% and 1.7% in fiscal year 2016, which ends in March 2017. In the subsequent fiscal year, the BoJ sees GDP growth of between 0.1% and 0.5%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 1.0% in calendar year 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. In 2017, the panel sees the economy growing 0.7%.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

Sample Report

Looking for forecasts related to GDP in Japan? Download a sample report now.


Japan GDP Chart

Japan GDP Q4 2015

Note: Quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized changes and annual variation of GDP in %.
Source: Cabinet Office (CO) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

Japan Economic News

  • Japan: Olympics postponed as government eyes urgent fiscal stimulus

    March 25, 2020

    On 24 March, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced the postponement of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games until the summer of next year at the latest.

    Read more

  • Japan: Private sector activity falls at fastest pace in nearly a decade in March

    March 24, 2020

    The Jibun Bank composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slumped to 35.8 in March from 47.0 in February, according to a flash reading, suggesting private sector activity declined from the previous month at the fastest pace in nearly a decade. The services PMI led the decline, falling to 32.7 in March from a revised 46.8 in February (previously reported: 46.7), marking the lowest reading since contemporary records began in September 2007.

    Read more

  • Japan: Headline inflation slows in February

    March 19, 2020

    The core consumer price index, which excludes the price of fresh food, decreased 0.1% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in February, contrasting the 0.1% increase in January, mainly due to lower prices for transportation and communication. Core inflation slowed to 0.6% in February from 0.8% in January, as expected by market analysts but still well below the Bank of Japan’s inflation target of 2.0%.

    Read more

  • Japan: Exports drop for the 15th month running in February

    March 18, 2020

    Yen-denominated merchandise exports fell 1.0% in February in year-on-year terms, after dropping 2.6% in January, largely due to lower machinery shipments, which make up nearly one-fifth of total merchandise exports.

    Read more

  • Japan: Bank of Japan acts to buttress the economy

    March 16, 2020

    At an emergency meeting ending on 16 March, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) loosened its monetary policy to support the Japanese economy against a rapidly deteriorating global economic backdrop.

    Read more

More news

Search form