Italy: GDP moderates in Q4

In Q4 2015, GDP recorded 0.1% growth over the previous quarter in seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, according to more detailed data released by the National Statistics Office (ISTAT) on 4 March. The reading matched the preliminary estimate and came in below the 0.2% rise tallied in Q3. In addition, the figure marked the lowest reading in a year.

Private consumption decelerated from Q3’s 0.5% rise to a 0.3% increase in Q4, which had marked the softest growth since Q1 2015. However, government consumption jumped from a 0.2% increase to a stronger 0.6% rise. Fixed investment increased 0.8% (Q3: +0.2% quarter-on-quarter).

On the external side of the economy, growth in exports rebounded from a 1.3% fall in Q3 to a 1.3% rise in Q4. Imports expanded 1.0% in Q4 (Q3: -0.2% qoq). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution jumped from minus 0.3 percentage points in Q3 to plus 0.1 percentage points in Q4.

In annual terms, the economy grew 1.0% in Q4, which was above Q3’s 0.8% rise and was in line with the preliminary estimate. The reading was the highest since Q2 2011.

Panelists see the economy increasing 0.5% in 2016, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists expect the economy to expand 1.1%.