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Italy: GDP moderates in Q3

December 1, 2015

In Q3 2015, GDP recorded 0.2% growth over the previous quarter in seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, according to more detailed data released by the National Statistics Office (ISTAT) on 1 December. The reading matched the preliminary estimate and came in below the 0.3% rise tallied in Q2. In addition, the figure marked the lowest reading since Q4 2014. Q3’s result reflected a deterioration of the external sector’s contribution on falling exports.

Private consumption remained stable at Q2’s 0.4% rise in Q3, which had marked the highest reading since Q3 2010. However, government consumption jumped from a 0.4% decrease to a 0.3% rise. Fixed investment dropped 0.4% (Q2: -0.1% quarter-on-quarter).

On the external side of the economy, growth in exports swung from a 1.3% rise in Q2 to a 0.8% fall in Q3, which marked the worst result in almost 3 years. Imports expanded 0.5% in Q3 (Q2: +1.6% qoq). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution fell from zero percentage points in Q2 to minus 0.4 percentage points in Q3.

In annual terms, the economy grew 0.8% in Q3, which was above Q2’s 0.6% rise but was slightly below the 0.9% expansion reported in the preliminary estimate. The reading was the highest since Q2 2011.

Panelists see the economy increasing 0.5% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect the economy to expand 1.1%.


Author:, Economist

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Italy GDP Q3 2015 0

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: National Statistics Institute and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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