Italy GDP Q1 2017


Italy: Economy keeps pace in Q1 2017

May 16, 2017

Italian GDP grew 0.2% over the previous quarter in Q1 in seasonally and working-day adjusted terms, according to an advance estimate released by the National Statistics Office (ISTAT) on 16 May. The result was in line with the 0.2% growth recorded in Q4 2016 and matched FocusEconomics’ forecast. According to the press release, the expansion in Q1 was the result of growth in both the agricultural and service sectors, while the industrial sector contracted. In annual terms, GDP grew 0.8% in Q1, down from Q4’s 1.0% expansion.

Industrial production has been muted so far in 2017, after a strong end to 2016. On the demand side, preliminary data indicate that domestic demand contributed positively to growth, more than offsetting a negative contribution from the external sector. More detailed national accounts will be released on 1 June.

This year the economy should broadly mirror last year’s performance. While the external sector should offer some additional support to growth thanks to strengthening global trade, private consumption is expected to weaken on the back of higher inflation, political uncertainty and a weak labor market.

Against this backdrop, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy increasing 0.9% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, panelists expect the economy to accelerate modestly and expand 1.0%.

Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Italy GDP Chart

Italy GDP Q1 2017

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: National Statistics Institute and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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