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Italy: Economy exits recession, posts flat growth in Q4 2014

February 13, 2015

In the fourth quarter of last year, GDP recorded flat growth over the previous quarter in seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, according to an advance estimate released by the National Statistics Office (ISTAT) on 13 February. The result came in above both the 0.1% contraction tallied in Q3 and the 0.1% drop that the markets had expected. Despite the continued sluggish performance, the economy managed to exit recession by posting flat growth in Q4. More detailed data will be released on 5 March.

In annual terms, the economy contracted 0.3% in Q4, which was slightly up from the 0.4% decline observed in Q3. The figure marked the highest reading since Q1 2014. In the full year 2014, the economy declined 0.4%, which was a less pronounced contraction than the 1.9% drop observed in 2013.

The Bank of Italy expects the economy to expand 0.4% in 2015 and 1.2% in 2016. Panelists, however, see the economy contracting 0.2% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect the economy to expand 0.6%.


Author:, Economist

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Italy GDP Q4 2014 0

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: National Statistics Institute and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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