Italy GDP


Italy: Economy enters technical recession in Q3

November 14, 2014

In the third quarter, GDP contracted a seasonally- and working-day adjusted 0.1% over the previous quarter, according to an advance estimate released by the National Statistics Office (ISTAT) on 14 November. The contraction followed the 0.2% decrease observed in the second quarter and met market expectations. As a result of two consecutive contractions, the economy has now entered a technical recession. Italy’s economy has not grown since Q3 2011.

In annual terms, the economy contracted 0.4% in Q3. The figure marked the steepest contraction since Q4 2013 and came in below the 0.3% drop recorded in the previous quarter.

The Bank of Italy projects a 0.2% expansion in GDP in 2014 and a 1.3% expansion in 2015. Panelists, however, see the economy contracting 0.2% in 2014, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2015, panelists expect the economy to expand 0.6%, which is also down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

Author:, Senior Economist

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Italy GDP Chart

Italy GDP Q3 2014

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: National Statistics Institute and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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