Indonesia Trade October 2016


Indonesia: Trade surplus broadly steady in October

November 16, 2016

Indonesia’s trade surplus was broadly unchanged in October amid turnarounds in both export and import growth. Exports rose 4.6% from the same month last year, which contrasted the slim 0.2% contraction seen in September and marked an over two-year high. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, rose 8.4% in October, which was above September’s 3.3% increase. Meanwhile, the contraction in oil and gas exports moderated slightly and was 25.2% (September: -27.0% year-on-year). Imports also rebounded and grew at the fastest pace in over two years, expanding 3.3% in October after falling 2.3% in the previous month.

As a result, the trade surplus was broadly steady in October at USD 1.2 billion (September: USD 1.3 billion). The result was above October 2015’s USD 1.0 billion surplus and overshot market expectations. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance improved from September’s USD 6.2 billion surplus to a USD 6.4 billion surplus.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to decrease 6.8% and see the trade balance recording a surplus of USD 9.8 billion in 2016. For 2017, the panel expects exports to grow 4.4% and expects the trade surplus to drop to USD 6.1 billion.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Lead Economist

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Indonesia Trade Chart

Indonesia Trade12m October 2016

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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