Indonesia Trade Balance February 2016


Indonesia: Trade surplus rises in February

March 16, 2016

Exports contracted 7.2% in February over the same month last year, which was a less pronounced contraction than the 20.9% drop seen in January. February’s drop marks the smallest fall since October 2014. The fall in non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, eased noticeably in February to a 2.2% contraction (January: -20.9% year-on-year). Oil and gas exports contracted a staggering 36.5% (January: -46.6% yoy). Meanwhile, imports fell 19.8% in February, which followed the 20.1% contraction seen in January.

The trade balance improved in February, rising from January’s USD 14 million surplus to a USD 1.1 billion gain. In addition, this result is above February 2015’s USD 663 million surplus and noticeably overshot market expectations of a USD 80 million surplus. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance widened from a USD 7.0 billion surplus in January to a USD 7.4 billion surplus in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to decrease 0.2% and see the trade balance tallying a surplus of USD 9.6 billion in 2016. For 2017, the panel expects exports to grow 6.6% and expects the trade surplus to reach USD 9.0 billion.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Lead Economist

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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart

Indonesia Trade12m February 2016

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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