Indonesia Trade Balance March 2016


Indonesia: Trade surplus more than halves in March

April 20, 2016

Exports contracted 13.5% in March over the same month last year, which was a more pronounced contraction than the 7.1% drop seen in February. February’s drop had marked the smallest fall since October 2014. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, plunged 9.3% in March, which was a deterioration from February’s 2.1% decrease. Oil and gas exports contracted a staggering 38.2% (February: -36.5% yoy). Meanwhile, imports fell 10.4% in March, which followed the 11.6% contraction seen in February.

The trade surplus deteriorated notably in March, declining from February’s USD 1.1 billion to USD 497 million. In addition, this result is below March 2015’s USD 1.0 billion surplus and worse than market expectations of a USD 500 million surplus. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance narrowed from a USD 7.4 billion surplus in February to a USD 6.9 billion surplus in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to decrease 0.9% and see the trade balance tallying a surplus of USD 8.6 billion in 2016. For 2017, the panel expects exports to grow 7.0% and expects the trade surplus to drop to USD 7.3 billion.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Lead Economist

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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart

Indonesia Trade12m March 2016

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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