Indonesia Trade Balance November 2016


Indonesia: Trade surplus falls in November

December 15, 2016

Indonesia’s trade surplus waned in November despite a surge in export growth. Exports soared 21.3% from the same month last year, which was a notable increase from the 5.1% expansion seen in October and marked a multi-year high. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, rose 28.7% in November, above October’s 3.6% increase. Meanwhile, oil and gas exports fell further, contracting 26.3% (October: -23.5% year-on-year). Import growth also accelerated, rising to 9.9% in November from October’s 3.6%.

The trade surplus narrowed in November, falling from September’s USD 1.2 billion to USD 838 million. The result contrasted November 2015’s USD 397 million deficit and overshot market expectations. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance improved from October’s USD 6.4 billion surplus to a USD 7.6 billion surplus.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to increase 3.2% and see the trade balance recording a surplus of USD 9.9 billion in 2017. For 2018, the panel expects exports to grow 4.4% and expects the trade surplus to drop to USD 9.0 billion.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart

Indonesia Trade12m November 2016

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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