Indonesia Trade Balance July 2016


Indonesia: Trade surplus falls in July

August 15, 2016

A notable fall in exports caused Indonesia’s trade surplus to tumble in July. Exports declined 17.0% over the same month last year, which was a deeper contraction than the 4.0% drop seen in June. July’s result marked the largest drop in exports since January. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, plunged 15.2% in July, which was a more pronounced drop than June’s 2.3% decrease. Oil and gas exports contracted a staggering 29.8% (June: -17.6% year-on-year). Meanwhile, imports fell 11.6% in July, which followed the 6.8% contraction seen in June.

As a result, the trade surplus narrowed in July, falling from June’s USD 879 million to USD 598 million. In addition, the result was below July 2015’s USD 1.4 billion surplus and undershot market expectations. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance fell from a USD 6.8 billion surplus in June to a USD 6.0 billion surplus.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to decrease 4.9% and see the trade balance tallying a surplus of USD 9.1 billion in 2016. For 2017, the panel expects exports to grow 6.1% and expects the trade surplus to drop to USD 7.5 billion.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart

Indonesia Trade12m July 2016 1

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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