Indonesia: Trade deficit plunges to a near-record low in April
June 3, 2013
In April, exports fell for the 13th consecutive month and contracted 9.1% over the same month last year, which followed the 12.9% decrease observed in March. As a result, in the 12 months up to April, exports declined 10.1% over the same period last year (March: -9.5% year-on-year).
Non-oil and gas exports, which account for a majority of Indonesian shipments, fell 2.4% in April (March: -12.1% yoy). In addition, oil and gas exports declined a whopping 32.9% (March: -16.0% yoy).
Simultaneously, imports declined 3.7% in April, which followed the 8.8% decrease recorded in March. Consequently, in the 12 months up to April, imports added 2.4% (March: +3.9% yoy).
Meanwhile, the trade deficit reached a near-record high of USD 1.6 billion in April, which contrasted market expectations of a USD 51 million surplus, and represents the largest deficit observed in six months. As a result, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance reached a record shortfall of USD 5.5 billion, larger than the USD 4.7 billion deficit observed in March.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate exports to expand 6.1% and the trade surplus to reach USD 7.3 billion in 2013. For 2014, the panel expects exports to grow 14.7% and the trade surplus to widen to USD 10.8 billion.