Indonesia: Merchandise exports grow at a more moderate pace in September

Merchandise exports soared 20.3% on an annual basis in September (August: +29.9% year-on-year). September’s outturn marked the slowest expansion since February 2021. Meanwhile, merchandise imports jumped 22.0% over the same month last year in September (August: +32.8% yoy).

As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 5.0 billion surplus in September (August 2022: USD 5.7 billion surplus; September 2021: USD 4.4 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 50.2 billion surplus in September, compared to the USD 49.6 billion surplus in August.

Our panelists forecast that in 2023 exports will decrease 1.3% and imports will rise 2.9%. In 2024, FocusEconomics panelists expect exports will expand 2.8%, while imports will rise 3.4%.