Indonesia: Indonesia's trade balance deteriorates at the outset of 2013
March 1, 2013
In January, exports fell for the 10th consecutive month and contracted 1.2% over the same month last year. The drop followed the 9.9% decrease observed in December but represented the slowest pace of decline seen since April 2012. As a result, in the 12 months up to January, exports fell 7.2% over the same period last year (December: -6.6% year-on-year).
Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, rose for the first time since March last year and added 2.7% (December: -8.6% yoy). Oil and gas exports, on the other hand, declined 16.8% (December: -14.9% yoy).
Simultaneously, imports expanded 6.8% in January, which contrasted the 5.4% decline recorded in December. Consequently, in the 12 months up to January, imports added 7.4% (December: +8.0% yoy).
Meanwhile, the trade deficit reached USD 171 million in January. Moreover, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance reached a record shortfall of USD 2.8 billion, larger than the USD 1.7 billion deficit recorded in December.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate exports to expand 10.6% and the trade surplus to reach USD 9.2 billion in 2013. For 2014, the panel expects exports to grow 12.7% and the trade surplus to widen to USD 12.4 billion.