Indonesia Trade Balance


Indonesia: Exports recover in August, but significant import growth pushes trade balance back to deficit

October 1, 2014

Exports increased 10.6% in August over the same month last year, which marked a significant turnaround from the 6.4% decrease observed in July and represented the fastest growth in almost three years. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, rebounded to a 14.6% increase in August (July: -9.2% year-on-year). Oil and gas exports tumbled to a 4.5% decrease (July: +9.4% yoy). Meanwhile, imports rebounded from a 19.2% contraction in July to a 13.7% expansion in August.

The trade balance swung from a USD 42 million surplus in July to a USD 318 million deficit in August, which contrasted the USD 72 million shortfall recorded in the same month last year. Moreover, the reading contrasted a USD 130 million surplus the market had expected. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance posted a surplus of USD 0.1 billion in August, which was down from the USD 0.5 billion surplus observed in July.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to expand 4.1% and see the trade balance reaching a USD 6.5 billion surplus in 2014. For 2015, the panel expects exports to grow 9.2% and expect the trade surplus to reach USD 9.8 billion.

Author:, Economist

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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart

Indonesia Trade12m August 2014

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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