Indonesia Trade Balance


Indonesia: Exports decline in October, but trade balance returns to surplus

December 1, 2014

Exports contracted 2.2% in October over the same month last year, which contrasted the 3.9% expansion observed in September and marked the weakest result in three months. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, dropped to a 0.8% decrease in October (September: +2.9% year-on-year). Similarly, oil and gas exports tumbled to a 9.1% contraction (September: +8.6% yoy). Meanwhile, imports swung from 0.2% increase in September to a 2.2% decline in October.

The trade balance jumped from a USD 270 million shortfall in September to a modest USD 23 million surplus in October, which was broadly in line with the USD 24 million deficit recorded in the same month last year. The reading contrasted the USD 60 million deficit the market had expected. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance held at a USD 0.7 billion surplus in October.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to expand 4.1% and see the trade balance reaching a USD 6.5 billion surplus in 2014. For 2015, the panel expects exports to grow 9.2% and expect the trade surplus to reach USD 9.8 billion.

Author:, Economist

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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart

Indonesia Trade12m October 2014

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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